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I think you're right in this case. But it's confusing because there are other seemingly similar cases in which you use conditional--for example, you would say "Nunca le dije que podría hacerlo." The idea of thinking of indicative versus subjunctive as a mood helps. Indicative mood is something you think has an element of objectivity, truth, or concreteness, so "I never said I would do that"--I never told you something would happen in the future. But "Nunca pensé que esto pudiera pasar" is "I never thought this would happen," indicating doubt (at the time of the first verb) so it's subjunctive. At least--I think so; someone else might be able to elaborate.
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